Please educate Democratic voters-----the national polls today use a polling method that skews these polls towards Clinton neo-liberals called 'likely voters'. Scientific polling has always been randomized polling of an entire group----say all registered Democrats. Polling corporations changed that a decade or so ago by including only those voters who come to the polls and call it 'likely voter polling'. We all know that people coming to the polls has dropped considerably and those not coming are overwhelmingly progressive labor and justice. They have stopped voting because the primaries always only include Clinton Wall Street global corporate neo-liberals. So, if you have only 20% of registered Democratic voters coming to the polls to vote and that is the pool from which national polling corporations pool----you see that the polling results are skewed for the Clinton neo-liberal. I watched as a national news agency ran a poll recently that had Hillary at 66% to Bernie's 4%. Think about this. This says that of the 20% of voters that we know lean towards Clinton neo-liberals----only 66% would vote for Hillary. It says----that the 80% of progressive labor and justice that do not come to the polls where not included----ergo 4% for Bernie. Imagine if these polls only included the 80% of registered Democratic voters not coming to the polls. Would the polling results be 80% for Bernie and less than 20% for Hillary? OF COURSE IT WOULD. THIS IS HOW NATIONAL POLLING SKEWS THE ELECTION PROCESS EVERY ELECTION AT ALL LEVELS. In Maryland, national polling gave candidates for Governor polling over 25% for candidates receiving 5% and polling of over 45% for a candidate that received 12%....this is how skewed towards Clinton Wall Street global corporate candidates polling has become. DO NOT ALLOW BERNIE TO BE FRUSTRATED FROM LACK OF SUPPORT!
Below you see an explanation---not quite accurate but you see the narrowing of voter groups in this polling process. Likely voters are always registered voters because you cannot vote if not. What they are explaining here is the movement away from random selection of polling pools ----how do you determine the most likely? Ask if they voted in the last elections.
It was easy to see this 'likely voter' polling in Maryland these last elections especially the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maryland. It was startlingly wrong. They make it sound as though they are doing this to be more accurate----but they are doing it to skew the results to global corporate neo-cons and neo-liberals!
Registered Voters vs. Likely Voters Understanding the difference
by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- We have received a number of questions about the difference between registered voters and likely voters when Gallup reports presidential election trial-heat results. Here's an explanation.
Not everyone votes in presidential elections. There are several ways to calculate voter turnout figures for an election, but in 2004, for example, experts estimate that only about 55% to 60% of the eligible voting population actually voted. (That's actually higher than was true in the 2000 election.)
When we interview a typical Gallup Poll random sample, we are estimating the responses of all adults 18 years of age and older. We call these national adults. In our recent poll conducted the weekend of Sept. 5-7, for example, John McCain led Barack Obama among these national adults by a 48% to 46% margin.
But we almost never report this figure. It's unrealistic to do so because we know that a percentage of these national adults not only won't vote, but can't vote -- because they are not U.S. citizens or are not registered to vote in their local areas.
So we narrow down the national adult sample to registered voters. This is the group who in response to a standard poll question say they are "registered to vote in their precinct or election district." This is the group whose data we report most often, because it represents an estimate of Americans who in theory are eligible to vote and could vote if they want to. In the Sept. 5-7 poll, this group divided 50% for McCain and 46% for Obama.
Of course, we know that in the final analysis, not all of these registered voters will actually end up voting. So Gallup has over the years created systems to isolate likely voters, that group of individuals who we can estimate are most likely to actually turn out and vote.
We know that 17% of Americans hate Congress and these pols so why do the highest rankings go to the most neo-liberal? The Republican polling will show the same skewing. A progressive poll showed Bernie well above Hillary......almost the exact opposite of these global corporate polling.
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Polling Data Poll Date Sample Spread
Clinton Biden Warren Sanders Webb O'Malley
RCP Average2/20 - 3/31-- 59.8 13.0 11.8 4.2 1.2 0.8
FOX News3/29 - 3/31397 LV 61 12 11 3 1 2
ABC News/Wash Post3/26 - 3/29RV 66 12 12 5 1 0
CNN/Opinion Research3/13 - 3/15466 A 62 15 10 3 1 1
McClatchy/Marist3/1 - 3/4462 RV 60 13 12 5 1 1
Quinnipiac2/26 - 3/2493 RV 56 10 14 4 1 0
PPP (D)2/20 - 2/22310 RV 54 16 12 5 2 1
All 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination Polling Data
Progressives need to think of two things when these stats are given. First, Obama neo-liberals embrace social statistics that do not factor in quality of life called Living Wage. It uses the same parameters that existed in the 1960s. This article does this. So, instead of Living Wage $15 an hour or $58, 800 for a family of 4 being the poverty line today----which it is----it uses $10,000 and $21,000 for a family of 4 as its line for poverty. This is how you hide that poverty in the US is at or near 70%. First world nations do not do that. Second, is 'median income'. Take Maryland---one of the richest and most income inequitable with huge impoverishment. Unemployment is 25-35% in Maryland (the 5.8% is only the percentage of people receiving unemployment checks). So, we eliminate that much of Maryland's population from this stat. Maryland is fast becoming a majority immigrant state like Texas----with immigrants not counted in this stat. So, you see as you eliminate most of the population from these stats----the wealth of the few over-rides the huge impoverishment at the bottom---ergo, the averaging of two groups. See how you make a state like Maryland look progressive when all of labor and poverty laws are really, really, really regressive and repressive. The wealth inequity in Maryland comes from systemic fraud and corruption moving all revenue to the top.
'Median income is the amount that divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half having income above that amount, and half having income below that amount. Mean income (average) is the amount obtained by dividing the total aggregate income of a group by the number of units in that group'.
Sat, Apr 4, 2015, 8:33AM EDT -
How much you have to earn to be considered middle class in every US state
By Libby Kane and Andy Kiersz 23 hours ago
Annapolis, Maryland. Maryland has the highest median income in the US. A recent analysis from Pew Charitable Trusts' Stateline blog found that the middle class shrunk in every state in the US between the years of 2000 and 2013 (the most recent data available).
"Middle class" is a tricky concept. Depending on where you live, you can feel middle class earning as much as $250,000 a year — about five times the US median income of $52,250 from the same time period.
In this analysis, Pew defined middle class households as those earning 67%-200% of a state's median income. So ... how much is that?
Below, we took the median income numbers from the US Census Bureau's 2013 American Community Survey, which Pew used in its analysis and which we've listed in the leftmost column. Then, we did the math to figure out how much middle-class earners make in each state, based on Pew's definition above. The states are listed in descending order based on median income.
Gallup is the worst of global corporate polling that is skewed so I am not showing this for accuracy. I am showing this as an example of where Trans Pacific Trade Pact will take the US-----global corporations from developing nations will be allowed to operate in the US as they do overseas----along with their wages. So, as the US drops to second world status from Reagan Clinton to now Bush Obama----it has a great deal more to fall. As workers from developing nations are brought to the US for jobs awarded to global corporations----especially infrastructure building---they will bring their wage levels. If you are an American ---if you want to work---you will work at that wage level. This is what Trans Pacific Trade Pact is about and Clinton/Obama neo-liberals have worked as hard as Bush neo-cons in moving this forward.
Since Norway and Sweden have some of the highest minimum wages----around $15 an hour---it seems really low to have these nation's per capita income so low---which is why I doubt Gallup's numbers.
If your national labor union leaders think they will simply organize immigrants----they are allowing US workers be brought to third world wage levels.
India's median per capita income lowest among BRICS: Gallup
Median means half respondents involved in research get income less than $616
BS Reporter | New Delhi December 16, 2013
Last Updated at 23:48 IST The yearly income earned by an individual in India is the lowest when compared with people living in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations, a Gallup survey showed on Monday.
The annual median per capita income in India stood at $616, the 99th position among 131 countries.
Median means half of the respondents involved in the research get an income less than $616 and the others half above that. Among the BRICS economies, Russia's median per capita income was the highest as people earned $4,129 a month.
The survey observed that in countries where full-time employment was more, the median per capita income was stronger. In India, close to 25 per cent of the people had full-time employment between 2008 and 2012, which is low compared with BRICS peers.
Russia was followed by Brazil, where the median per capita income was $2,247, followed by China ($1,786) and South Africa ($1,217). The survey also highlighted a large difference between more economically developed countries and developing ones. The firm said this “illustrates how dramatically spending power varies worldwide.”
Norway, which topped the list, had a median per capita income of $19,308, followed by Sweden ($18,632). Zambia recorded a per capita income of $287.
I'm no rocket scientist but I can add two + two------Maryland always ranks itself #1 in education and gives scores that are the highest in the nation and yet I sat at the Maryland Assembly meeting this year listing to a Legislative Services report that Maryland has the highest remediation in the nation. Remediation does not mean high scores. What Maryland has done for decades is simply pass students by inflating grades. Math skills are gone because calculators are allowed to be used too much and too early in a student's learning. Easy peasy solutions. The point is this-----Maryland's ranking as #1 in education which O'Malley will hawk on the campaign trail is purely fiction. The only thing Maryland is #1 in education is CORPORATIZATION AND ONLINE CHEAPENING OF EDUCATION. Yet, every year Maryland releases those student scores even as this article states---40% of Maryland students need remedial help with math courses. This of course goes with other subjects as well. Think about this----this stat is only showing the students that apply for higher education of some kind--so this number is huge.
It is not public education or teachers that are the problem---the REagan Clinton education reform took text books out of classrooms and allowed calculators in math at the earliest stage and this gave us the reading and math deficits. Reagan Clinton were dumbing down for privatization and installation of neo-liberal privatized education.
Maryland students are of course no less able to achieve ----they are victims of education policy meant to dumb down----the Johns Hopkins/Grasmick education policy. These same two are now taking public education corporate---the planned next stage. Republicans love to use this as a reason for charters but Hopkins is the most neo-conservative and it is the face of installing education policy these few decades.
High schools failing to prepare studentsCollege finds 40 percent need help before they can take math coursesFriday, Feb. 26, 2010By JESSE YEATMAN South Maryland News
The number of students needing to take a remedial math course at the College of Southern Maryland continues to be high, school officials said, even though the math is taught at the high school level.Tom Seremet, a veteran math professor at the community college, said every year he continues to see too many students test into math courses that do not count toward the math graduation requirements at the community college.About 40 percent of CSM freshmen coming straight out of high schools in Southern Maryland test into a math class below college level. The results are better for the writing and the reading tests."We would prefer not to run as many remedial classes," said Bradley M. Gottfried, president of CSM.Most entering students take the Compass test, which is used by other Maryland community colleges, to see what class they place into, Seremet said.The lowest performing will place into an 800 level course called computational skills that is a review of arithmetic skills. This class is largely made up of returning adult students, he said.Others test into a 900 level course that is essentially prealgebra.There are no grades given, only a pass/fail. Students pay to take these classes but do not get any college credit for either the 800 or 900 courses."We are getting a percentage of recent high school students [testing into the 900-level course] and quite frankly we should not be getting that," Seremet said.There are also several 1000-level courses known as transitional algebra that present the typical algebra curriculum broken down over three semesters to help students pick up algebra skills they either did not learn or forgot from high school.While there are credits attached to the 1000-level courses, they do not count toward a degree's math credit requirement.Seremet said although it could be lack of skills for some, for others it is lack of motivation, either in high school or when taking the placement test."When they needed to value education so they could go to college they had different agendas," he said. He said too many students do not value an education enough, especially when it comes to math skills."It's not that the public school system is not presenting the information; they certainly are," he said."They've had that algebra, but for whatever reason they didn't get it" or they goofed off while taking the test, Seremet said."Education is just a reflection of society," Seremet said.He said that he has seen an improvement in the preparedness of students in recent years."We went through kind of a bad time there in the late 90s, early part of this decade," Seremet said."When the youngsters show up for class they seem more ready for college-level math," he said.To reach the more than one-third of new CSM students who aren't ready, Seremet's No. 1 suggestion would be for every high school student to be required to take and pass a math class in the last year of high school.He said this would even help some who do not have college aspirations."A lot of them change their mind and don't prepare" for college, Seremet said.He disapproved of the St. Mary's County school board's decision two years ago to reduce the math credit graduation requirement of St. Mary's public schools from four to three."As a math teacher, that was unfortunate," he said.Gottfried agreed, saying for too many high school seniors the last year in high school is not as productive as it should be."Students will start to ease off a little bit" on academic studies, he said.Gottfried applauded recent discussions about moving the state's high school graduation requirement from three to four math credits."I think it could have a real impact," he said.A needed, growing partnership"I know that the school districts have a lot on their plate ... we understand that and we try to strike a balance," Gottfried said. However, there needs to be a better transition from high school to colleges. He said he would like to have seen better alignment between the two institutions years ago."There's not enough coordination between the school districts and the colleges," Gottfried said.While he acknowledged there is a lot of finger-pointing, "It's not productive."Gottfried said the former St. Mary's public school superintendent and former president of the College of Southern Maryland formed an initiative several years ago entitled Better Education Together, which involves regular meetings between senior administrators of the two education affiliates."A lot of good things have come from it," Gottfried said. Since that start, college officials have has also begun meeting regularly with Calvert and Charles public schools' administrators.Patuxent High School in Calvert County is piloting a new idea this winter; all of its juniors will take the CSM math placement test. The test was postponed because of the snowstorms this winter, but would cost between $2.40 and $3.40 per student to administer, a college spokesperson said.Gottfried said that the students will get a better idea on where they stand in terms of math readiness and what math class might be best for them in their senior year. Hopefully, Gottfried said, this will lead to more students testing into a college-level math course as CSM freshmen instead of having to take a remedial math course.Gottfried said he would like to see every high school junior in Southern Maryland take the Compass test.Also, fifth-grade classes visit CSM campuses to help them begin to see the importance of a college education."The problem in Southern Maryland is not [high school] curriculum, but it could always be improved," Seremet said. The issue is more about motivation.As evidence of the top-performing students' abilities, he points to a college math team that competes against other community colleges in the nation. It is always in the top 50 percent, and often in the top one-third of teams in the nation, Seremet said.Seremet helped Great Mills High School set up the finite math course that counts as dual enrollment, giving both high school and college math credit. He said he supports expansion of programs like that.Alex Jaffurs, supervisor of math at St. Mary's public schools, said he is hoping to have more dual enrollment math courses at the county's high schools."We want to give them every option possible," Jaffurs firstname.lastname@example.orgStudents needing math helpPercentage of Southern Maryland high school graduates who needed math remediation at the College of Southern Maryland2004 2005 2006 2007 200830 39 43 37 38Source: College of Southern MarylandState adopts common standardsAll of the community colleges in the state have adopted common standards for requiring students to take remedial courses, according to a report by the Maryland Higher Education Commission.More than half (56 percent) of Maryland students beginning their postsecondary careers at community colleges who complete a college preparatory curriculum in high school required math remediation, while 21 percent and 22 percent, respectively, needed a developmental course in English and reading. Two-thirds of Maryland community college students who did not complete a college preparatory curriculum (69 percent) were assessed as needing remediation in math, 35 percent required remedial help in English and 35 percent needed assistance in reading. These data are based on the 2006-2007 academic year, the most recent available from the annual commission reports.Source: Maryland Higher Education Commission'sStudent Outcome and Achievement Report