I want to thank those of you having voted for me. It is not in vain as I take this election result to court these votes prove I had support and was active in this race. As you see with today's post.....the entire Maryland election process is corrupt and the election rigging willful and deliberate. I should have no problem with winning in court, but if corruption extends to this Maryland Circuit Court----I will appeal. Meanwhile, I am preparing to file in Federal Court the case against the organizations committing these election violations and the primary candidates that participated knowing my campaign was being illegally excluded.
Cindy Walsh for Governor of Maryland has proven that with the final vote showing the supposed winner Anthony Brown at 12% of registered democratic voters to Cindy Walsh’s 1%-----I could have easily won this election with just a moderate media exposure and participation in the forums and debates that should have included me. I could have easily won with a platform of ending corporate fraud and government corruption and holding global corporations at bay while building an domestic economy in Maryland driven by small and regional businesses. It is this platform that motivated the exclusion from this primary race.
St. Mary’s College performs what looks to be the most academic and reliable polling in the State of Maryland yet it too uses methods that diminish accuracy like automated calling and small cohorts for extremely low polling figures. As you can see below, St. Mary’s does not post its polling model even as it says the information is coming so we do not know how they randomized, what the protocol for failed calling attempts was, etc. The other polling agencies like Gonzalez, Sun, Washington Post use models that make polling data irrelevant. The percentages that make it to media for each candidate always include those methods with higher margin of error and ‘likely’ voter cohorts. Again, it is not cost or time that figures into these choices of polling methods because a handful of people working just a few hours can call 1,000 voters. It is a willful and deliberate attempt to use polling data to manipulate the election process.
Welcome To INSIGHTS
The Maryland Poll or MPoll, our Blog INSIGHTS, and Hosted Blogs
Professor Susan Grogan
April’s MPoll results are in!
Download Graphs of the MPOll‘s Results.
You are on the Welcome (Home) Page of INSIGHTS, The Maryland Poll’s blog. The Maryland Poll , a.k.a. the MPoll, was conceived from two years of research toward starting a public opinion polling research center within St. Mary’s College of Maryland’s Political Science Department. My professional reasons were to develop a pedagogical model incorporating more technology and involving more public service in my political science classes as well as steering my own professional career in that direction. (Personal reasons may have included a knee-jerk response to certain members in the House of the US Congress who absurdly continue to insist that ‘we don’t do science in political science.‘)
Much of our activity will involve gathering together public opinion data from polls conducted within and about Maryland. We will also conduct our own MPolls. We conducted our first poll from April 10 – 13 and the results were published April 18, 2014. Polls are planned for the fall semester during the Maryland 2014 Gubernatorial Election.
Thus, the project is multidimensional. As mentioned, the MPoll will conduct polls. INSIGHTS, MPoll’s blog, will gather polling data and will provide straightforward commentary as nonpartisan as is possible. As another aspect of our public service mission, INSIGHTS will also publish background information on polling and how to interpret polling data. The idea is that, in addition to professional commentary, INSIGHTS will offer the necessary background the layperson would need to analyze polling data.
We could say that commenting provides another useful measure of public opinion. INSIGHTS as well as Hosted Blogs are open for comments that further the discussion by presenting a more diverse range of opinions and ideas about public opinion and political goings-on that affect or attempt to influence the opinions of persons residing in or near Maryland. Most often, the primary demographic of concern will be eligible voters.
All comments will be moderated. Not all comments will be accepted. In most cases, it likely will be that we are too overwhelmed at the moment to respond but we also hope to maintain a reasonable level of decorum.
About Candidates v. Polls
Coming soon. We should have content up by the end of January on most of this site.
Thank you for your patience.
About Interpreting Polls Coming soon. We should have content up soon on most of this site.
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About Polling Techniques Coming soon. We should have content up soon on most of this site.
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As I show elsewhere in the evidence provided, the various polls greatly exaggerated the candidates favored to win. When the public is shown these irrelevant stats it creates the apathy for voting for a candidate they would actually want. Psychologically, it is known that voters tend to follow the front-runner and this is why the exaggerated figures for Brown, Gansler, and Mizeur were created with manipulated polling standards like margin of error and selected polling groups of ‘likely’ voters. Can you imagine when voter turnout hits 10-20% how small and homogenous that polling pool of likely voters become? Why would polls include all republican candidates even as they barely polled and not all of the democratic candidates?
The media identified the apathy of voters as ‘not caring’ but we know the apathy is from an inability to exact change to a system voters know is rigged.
Undecided voters dominate in new gubernatorial poll
April 23, 2014|By Michael Dresser Baltimore Sun
The poll strongly tracks previous surveys of the race and shows little sign that any candidate is gaining significant ground. For instance, a poll released by The Baltimore Sun in February showed Brown with 35 percent, Gansler with 14 percent and Mizeur with 10 percent. On the Republican side Hogan polled at 13 percent and Craig at 7 percent.
The methodologies of the two polls were significantly different. Unlike the St. Mary’s poll, The Sun's poll used live callers and concentrated on 500 likely voters rather than all registered voters. The college’s automated poll surveyed 954 registered voters and had a margin of error of 3.17 percentage points.
Look at this media representation of the Maryland democratic primary race for governor. The polling numbers are so skewed it is a mockery of the election process. Again, the use of likely voters, a subset so small as to be useless in attaining actual polling data. Is it illegal for media and polling agencies to deliberately skew these polling data in a way that willfully and deliberately damages the campaign of other candidates? Yes, it is. It is also illegal for organizations participating in these election events to use these polling data everyone knows are skewed. I can assure this court, Cindy Walsh for Governor of Maryland gave the larger venues participating in this primary election this information on polling as the primary progressed. Allowing these polls saying Brown was polling at 46% of likely voters right before the primary election and ending with 12% of registered democratic voters -----this is a crime. It takes away all voter enthusiasm to participate and tells prospective candidates and those like me that this system is so corrupt you will not have a chance. There is no way the Maryland Election Board does not have staff with enough knowledge on polling methodology to know these polls were willfully and deliberately misleading the Maryland voters and skewing the primary election. As you will see below Cindy Walsh for Governor of Maryland received 6,500 votes or 1% of the democratic vote. Antony Brown supposedly won this race with only 12% of registered democratic voters. My campaign with just a littlemedia coverage---with access to major venue coverage----would have easily won.
Lt. Gov. Brown holds commanding lead over Democratic rivals in Maryland governor’s race
From left, Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler, Del. Heather R. Mizeur (Montgomery) and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown, the Democratic candidates for governor of Maryland. (Matt Mcclain/AP)
By John Wagner and Peyton M. Craighill June 10 Washington Post
Maryland Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown holds a commanding lead over his Democratic rivals for governor, according to a new Washington Post poll, two weeks before a primary election that most voters are not following closely and that is likely to attract a low turnout.
Though nearly half of likely voters say they could still change their minds, the poll found backing for Brown across a broad demographic range — and deep support among fellow African Americans — and showed that Brown voters are firmer in their allegiance than those siding with the other candidates. With scant evidence that attacks on Brown’s management skills, particularly his handling of the state’s health insurance exchange, have damaged him, the poll shows no obvious path to victory for the other Democratic hopefuls in the June 24 primary.
Statewide, 46 percent of likely Democratic voters support Brown, while 23 percent back Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler and 16 percent support Del. Heather R. Mizeur (Montgomery), according to the poll.
Analysts said Brown’s lead is formidable in the race, in which early voting starts Thursday.
“Absent a gigantic mistake from the Brown campaign, this is probably over,” said Donald F. Norris, chairman of the public policy department at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. “I think the only strategy left for a candidate in Gansler’s situation is to attack, attack, attack, and that’s likely to backfire.”
If Gansler is too aggressive, Norris reasoned, he could strike voters as desperate and wind up driving voters to Mizeur as an alternative.
Here's the breakdown of votes in the primary as of 2:26 a.m. Wednesday, according to the Maryland Board of Elections, with 1982 of 1988 precincts reporting:
Larry Hogan/Boyd Rutherford: 43.01 percent
David Craig/Jeannie Haddaway: 29.12 percent
Charles Lollar/Ken Timmerman: 15.51 percent
Ronald George/Shelley Aloi: 12.36 percent
Anthony Brown/Ken Ulman: 51.29 percent
Doug Gansler/Jolene Ivey: 24.23 percent
Heather Mizeur/Delman Coates: 21.71 percent
Cindy Walsh/Mary Elizabeth Wingate-Pennacchia: 1.4 percent
Charles Smith/Clarence Tucker: 0.72 percent
Ralph Jaffe/Freda Jaffe: 0.65 percent
The following results are from early voting (June 12 to 19), as reported by the Maryland Board of Elections.
Anthony Brown/Ken Ulman: 57.71 percent
Doug Gansler/Jolene Ivey: 20.82 percent
Heather Mizeur/Delman Coates: 19.4 percent
Cindy Walsh/Mary Elizabeth Wingate-Pennacchia: 1.05 percent
Ralph Jaffe/Freda Jaffe: 0.51 percent
Charles Smith/Clarence Tucker: 0.51 percent
Larry Hogan/Boyd Rutherford: 42.79 percent
David Craig/Jeannie Haddaway: 31.95 percent
Charles Lollar/Ken Timmerman: 13.74 percent
Ronald George/Shelley Aloi: 11.53 percent
If you look at all of the election result coverage it almost always refers to the percentage won of votes casted and not percentage of total registered voters. You see below the extremely low percentage of registered voters who actually voted. As the group at St. Mary’s College stated in the article on polling…..the problem is the failure to educate the voters. This speaks to the inclusion of all candidates and platforms and it speaks to the election venues available to the citizens of Maryland. The fact that there is not a Maryland State election platform that allows all candidates access to forums and debates all over the state shows the capture of this election system. The fact that organizations tasked with the mission of free and fair election oversight, like the Maryland League of Women Voters, use the same arbitrary polling guidelines and front-runner status and openly work to make sure a candidate with a certain platform does not have videotaped exposure on its website shows a captured election system. When the University of Maryland is telling me it uses a 15% polling threshold and Maryland Public Television and Maryland League of Women Voters uses 10% and they all are allowing all republican candidates mostly polling lower than these thresholds in all forum events while excluding democratic candidates because of platform-----you have a captured election system. As I pointed out, the private non-profits that are taking over this duty all express prejudice and as I have proven, do it in ways that are illegal and violate election law. The law states that the voters have the right to go to the polls with freedom and intellect to participate as an educated electorate. Denying viable candidates the right to exposure and access to major forums and debates whether on media or tied to a 501c3 event willfully and deliberately damages a candidate’s campaign and works to keep people from this ballot intellect.
I ask that you look as well at the final percentages of registered voters for each candidate to see how this actual count compares with the polling numbers given to us all through the governor’s race. Don’t forget that we just came through the most media campaign advertisement blitz of the primary election period so these percentages would be a peak. You will notice that these percentages are closer to the St Mary’s poll in April where most of the candidates barely broke 10% and many were around 5%. These are the polling numbers used by major venues to exclude Cindy Walsh for Governor of Maryland and the arbitrary nature is obvious. I would say that it is obvious as well that some polling agencies provided polling numbers that were so inflated and unreal as to set the stage for some candidates being labelled front-runners and meeting guidelines. Again, this kind of polling is so irrelevant and excludes candidates who are relegated to the ‘undecided’ and ‘other’ category that it fails to meet the Supreme Court ruling about identifying candidates as viable or strongly supported by the public.
2014 Primary Election Results - Maryland Governor
UPDATED 2:22 PM EDT Jun 23, 2014
Governor - Dem Primary
June 25, 2014 - 08:26AM ET
Maryland - 2033 of 2033 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Brown, Anthony Dem 235,974 51%
Gansler, Douglas Dem 111,444 24%
Mizeur, Heather Dem 99,84 22%
Walsh, Cindy Dem 6,441 1%
Smith, Charles Dem 3,296 1%
Jaffe, Ralph Dem 2,995 1%
Governor - GOP Primary
June 25, 2014 - 08:26AM ET
Maryland - 2033 of 2033 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Hogan, Larry GOP 89,100 43%
Craig, David GOP 60,357 29%
Lollar, Charles GOP 32,155 16%
George, Ron GOP 25,613 12%
Read more: http://www.wbaltv.com/politics/2014-primary-election-results-maryland-governor/26550226#ixzz35eavyG7j
Brown ---------236,000 of 2,000,000 registered democratic voters = 12% of the vote
Gansler ------- 111,500 of 2,000,000 registered democratic voters = 6% of the vote
Mizeur ------- 100,000 of 2,000,000 registered democratic voters = 5% of the vote
Walsh ------- 6,500 of 2,000,000 registered democratic voters = 1% of the vote
23% of registered democrats voted
Hogan ------ 89,000 of 1,000,000 registered republican voters = 9% of the vote
Craig ------- 60,500 of 1,000,000 registered republican voters = 6% of the vote
Lollar ------ 32,000 of 1,000,000 registered republican voters = 3% of the vote
George ----- 26,000 of 1,000,000 registered republican voters = 3% of the vote
21% of registered republicans voted.
Please look at these final election results with the actual percentage of registered voters per candidate to see the 12% of voters for Brown to see these figures have been super-sized from the start. There is no reasonable explanation that after the last few weeks of concentrated campaign advertisement and after several months of media saturation of this one candidate that he only garners 12% of registered democratic voters ----other than democratic voters did not want this candidate that is now declared primary winner with 12% of the voters. Meanwhile, Cindy Walsh for Governor of Maryland is not far behind with 1% of the vote and completely censured in the media and major forum and debate venues.
The expedited nature of this election process denies me the ability to subpoena all of these polling tools to verify the voracity of methods. I would as well have used the subpoena to have an official set of guidelines for forums and debates from the institutions I have quoted. I feel confident because of the irrelevant methods we do see and the extreme inflation of the polls to the reality of the election that I have proven the invalidity of polling as a method of exclusion and identifying a candidate as viable, a front-runner, or having strong public support. Everyone in this primary race knew these polling figures and methods allowed this inflation of percentages as did the organizations using polling to exclude arbitrarily. As the final results show only one candidate meets the 10% polling requirement of Maryland Public Television and Maryland League of Women Voters and none meet the polling requirement of University of Maryland’s 15% polling. If this court allows these polling agencies to arbitrarily inflate results to effect the conduct of these elections, the election process in Maryland will remain corrupt and disillusioned voters left with no government agency protecting free and fair elections.
The court must recognize the systemic fraud and corruption in this democratic primary system at all levels of operation and rule this primary election result invalid and recognize that replicating the primary with the system without reform would be impossible. I will be requesting in my Federal Court lawsuit against the defendants listed that the Federal government place an oversight decree on Maryland Elections Board and the Maryland Democratic Party and monitor the behavior of elections in the state over several election periods until all entities involved in the election process understand and develop good standards of operation while participating in elections. The candidates in the democratic primary are all guilty of Federal election law and as such will be tried under felony indictment. This should give this Maryland Circuit Court further reason to declare this democratic primary void with no second primary.
Cindy Walsh for Governor of Maryland did all that was possible to identify, report, mitigate, and seek resolution to the violations listed in this complaint. I should not be denied my place in this election for governor. Since I had the ability in February 2014 to register as a general election candidate for governor with the Green Party, I request that this be allowed now by suspending this one time the requirement to file for this general election status by February 2104. I request the court assess financial penalty to those government agencies assigned to protect elections and my rights as a candidate to include candidate filing fees for myself and my Lt Governor and for the costs of electioneering over the course of several months.
Polls Potential Democratic primary match-ups [hide]Primary trial heats for 2014 gubernatorial race
Margin of Error
Brown-Ulman Internal Poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang
(September 11-15, 2013)
Gonzales Research/Marketing Strategies Poll
(October 1-14, 2013)
Baltimore Sun Poll
(February 8-12, 2014)
Washington Post Poll
(February 13-16, 2014)
The Maryland Poll
(April 10-13, 2014)
WPA Opinion Research
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org