Wall Street is trying to paint this systemic growth in unemployment for American citizens as baby boomers retiring or young adults going to school. Young adults are being pressed to stay in school----older adults are being pressed to go back to school----
BECAUSE THERE ARE NO JOBS AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS 35% AND GROWING FOR CITIZENS.
The goal of these few decades under Reagan/Clinton were to create mass unemployment to kill American citizen wealth and to reclaim real estate and homeownership to the wealthiest. The 2008 economic crash super-sized this goal and near retirement and young adults are targeted for long-term unemployment. The mid-age US citizens still working will be targeted in this coming economic crash from bond market fraud and collapse.
The goal was to move all workers having seniority earning strong wages out with long-term unemployment and replace them with temporary/part-time employment and immigrant labor.
Near retirement employees were fired or forced to early retirement and are largely left unemployed----
Senior Unemployment Rate Hits 31-Year High
Older employees no longer enjoy more job security than newer workers
By Emily Brandon Jan. 30, 2009, at 1:54 p.m. + More
Older and more tenured workers used to enjoy more job security than younger and newer employees. Companies invested time and money in their career employees and had a lot to loose by laying them off. But that edge may be disappearing during this recession.
The unemployment rate for adults age 65 and older reached 5.1 percent in December 2008, a 31-year high, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. While that’s lower than the overall unemployment rate, which hovered at 7.2 percent in December, many retirement researchers think that the unemployment rate among older adults will continue to climb because Americans will need to work during the traditional retirement years. Last month 326,000 adults age 65 and older were unemployed, 60 percent more than in November 2007, the last month before the current recession began.
Fewer older Americans can afford to retire now than during past recessions, according to Richard Johnson, a principal research associate at the Urban Institute. The share of seniors age 65 to 69 working or looking for work was 29.7 percent in 2007, up from 20.2 percent in 1982. Workers without traditional employer-sponsored pensions and retiree health plans often need to work until they qualify for Social Security and Medicare. And there are valuable increases in Social Security check amounts for each year a worker delays claiming. Plus, the stock market lost 41 percent of its value between September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2008, including a $2.8 trillion drop in retirement account balances. This further intensifies pressures on seniors to work longer, especially workers who have only a 401(k) or IRA retirement plan. (During the 1981–82 recession, the S&P 500 index fell by only 6 percent.)
Most of the jobs lost so far during the current recession have been in the manufacturing, construction, retail, business, and personal services sectors. Of those fields, the contraction of the retail sector will hit seniors the hardest because retail sales in the largest occupation for workers age 65 and older.
But there are a few relatively recession resistant industries that tend to welcome older workers including health care, higher education, and government jobs. Check out these 10 cities with plenty of job opportunities for older workers. My colleague, Rick Newman, discussed these great places to live and work in retirement with Fox Business Network in New York yesterday.
Also, try out these tips for finding a job after age 50 and this job hunting advice from a manager who is currently hiring.
As you see the same is happening in all developed nations and it is the moving of all wealth accumulated by a strong middle-affluent first world nation under attack and being sucked to the 1%----it is all fabricated stagnation created by global corporations----this is what we call corporate fascism----when too much control of a nation's economy falls into the hands of corporate monopolies----this was the importance of European and American anti-trust/monopoly laws now ignored by global corporate neo-liberals and Republicans.
Taking all the wealth of baby boomers does not only target the old-----it eliminated inheritance to children of house or money for the next generation. This is meant to keep young adults from ever accumulating wealth and assets as they are being forced into temporary, part-time employment called apprenticeships/internships/VISTA. Unemployment today is highest for young and old----designed to break the system of continued middle-class strength and lifestyle. The mid-age Europeans and Americans still in the game had better WAKE UP------this coming great recession and decades-long unemployment with a flood of immigrant labor into Europe and America will attack this mid-age employment as hard. The goal is 90% of US citizens impoverished-----either sent off as ex-pats or thrown into the US International Economic Zone global corporate campus/factory system where everyone works as they do in the third world.
Older Workers in Europe’s Crisis
Gregory Viscusi and Lorenzo Totaro
October 17, 2012 — 3:46 AM EDT
A meat trader reads a newspaper in Athens central market in Greece.Jean-Luc Guillaume always presumed he’d retire at about 60, just like his civil-servant father.
One year from reaching that age, the biology researcher has no plans to stop working. Cutbacks to France’s retirement benefits, the European financial crisis and the cost of a recent separation have stretched out his horizons.
“Financially, retirement just isn’t an option,” said Guillaume at a street demonstration against job cuts at his employer, Sanofi SA, that he had traveled to Paris from his home in Toulouse to attend. “I’m looking at 66 at the earliest.”
Guillaume is part of a generation of European workers retiring later as the worst economic downturn in 70 years and higher retirement ages induce workers to stay longer. The proportion of over-55s in jobs has climbed even as unemployment rates have soared across the European Union.
While many economists say increased work for elders doesn’t reduce job opportunities for the young, deferred retirement has become a political issue for those who say otherwise, especially as youth unemployment in the EU exceeds 20 percent.
“They may not always be happy about it, but older people are staying in jobs longer than they used to,” said Eric Thode, senior expert at Bertelsmann Stiftung, a research institute based in Gutersloh, Germany. “Young people are taking the brunt of the crisis.”
Between 2000 and 2010, the percentage of those over 55 in employment rose in all 27 EU countries except Portugal and Romania, according to Eurostat, the European statistics agency. The trend appears to have continued most places into 2011, said Thode, based on employment reports.
It’s had political ramifications. Beppe Grillo, an Italian comedian-turned-politician, used anger over austerity and higher retirement ages to boost a political party that polls show could get as much as 18 percent of the vote nationwide in elections due by May. It also has won mayoral elections in northern Italy.
“Raising the retirement age to 67 means keeps the young out of the workforce,” Grillo wrote on his blog July 4.
The CGT, France’s largest union, said in an Aug. 29 statement about rising joblessness that “there will always be this much unemployment, precariousness and poverty until there is an ambitious jobs policy and the possibility for everyone to retire with a full pension at 60.”
In past decades, political leaders bought that argument. In economic downturns, older workers would lose their jobs first, often driven by government-inspired plans to push them into retirement to make room for younger workers.
This time around, countries are under pressure to reduce costs of state-funded pension programs. Leaders have increased the legal retirement age to reduce pension costs, passed anti-age discrimination laws and rolled back early-retirement plans, all to keep more seniors in their jobs.
When Carl Camden joined global temporary work agency Kelly Services Inc. as a senior vice-president 17 years ago, the biggest age group placed in both the U.S. and Europe was younger than 30. Now the largest segment is over 50 on both continents, said Camden, chief executive officer of the Troy, Michigan-based company.
“I do worry about the social fabric tearing apart,” he said in a phone interview. “I worry about social dynamics when economies aren’t growing fast enough to provide jobs for the young. There is a risk of generational conflict.”
End of Indexing
Italy in 1995 ended the indexation of pensions, causing them to lag behind the inflation rate and reducing an incentive to retire early. A 2008 law eliminated the possibility of retiring at 57 in certain cases. Prime Minister Mario Monti this year raised the number of years of work required for a pension and will lift the retirement age further to 66 from 65 by 2018.
The result: the percentage of people 50-64 in jobs reached 49.6 percent in 2011, up from 47.3 percent in 2008.
In France, most early retirement options were ended in 2003. Then in 2010 the minimum retirement age was lifted, to 62 from 60. President Francois Hollande returned the minimum retirement age to 60 after his May election, but only for those who started work as teenagers -- 110,000 people.
As in Italy, the proportion of older workers rose, to 56.5 percent of people 50-64 in the second quarter of 2012, up from 55.4 percent in the first quarter of 2008, when France’s overall unemployment rate was at its lowest since 1983.
“Throughout the 2000s there were a series of reforms to the pension systems in France and Italy,” said Jean-Olivier Hairault, a professor at Sorbonne Paris 1 University. “The result is that they’ve had no choice but to stay in the labor force and keep seeking work.”
Three years after the euro region’s debt crisis began, the 17-nation bloc is headed into recession and the August unemployment rate was 11.4 percent, the highest since the creation of the single currency. For those under 25, the rate was 22.8 percent.
The slow economy has given some older workers the worst of both worlds: They have to work longer, for less money. Antonio Di Florio, a 58-year-old assembly line worker at a Fiat SpA car factory in Turin, was supposed to retire in April 2013 after 40 years of work with the carmaker.
Now, following Italy’s pension changes, his retirement is postponed until July 2015. Company production cutbacks have forced him to work part-time, reducing his monthly take-home to 850 euros ($1,109), 35 percent less than he earned before. One cutback victim: his 22-year-old daughter’s wedding.
“She likely won’t be able to have a honeymoon and we’ll have to rent the bridal gown rather than buying it,” Di Florio said in a phone interview yesterday. Still, he said, “I consider myself lucky to have a job, although one with a low salary.”
“Activity rates of elderly workers are more affected by policy choices, while young workers more at the whim of markets,” said Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE, a research institute associated with Paris-based graduate school Sciences Po. “The main adjustment to the crisis has come from companies not renewing the short-term contracts of younger workers.”
In the U.S, where the eligibility age for full Social Security retirement benefits is being gradually increased to 67 from 65, people are working longer as well. The proportion of those 65 years and older in the labor force rose to 18.6 percent in September from 13.6 percent that same month in 2002, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Europe’s elderly haven’t avoided suffering. While the percentage of those over 55 in jobs has risen, so has the number of elderly unemployed. The unemployment rate for those over 50 was 6.5 percent in France in the second half of 2012, up from 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2008.
No Going Home
Elderly unemployed on average stay jobless twice as long as the overall population because their skills are often outdated and their salary needs too high, Plane said. Nor do they have the option of returning to education or moving in with parents.
While pushing elderly workers into retirement may open jobs for younger people at the company level, it doesn’t necessarily work that way across a nation’s overall economy, said Thode at Bertelsmann.
“Countries that have high rates of senior employment also have high rates of youth employment,” he said, citing Germany and Sweden. “Other countries fail both groups.”
Anne-Sophie Parent, secretary general of Age Platform Europe, a Brussels-based advocacy group for seniors, says the elderly are likely to take the brunt of the next round of job losses as countries cut into their civil service.
“Seniors have been in more protected jobs, but now we are seeing cuts in civil service in all countries,” said Parent. “For those over 45 who lose their jobs, it’s over for them.”
Guillaume, the Toulouse biologist, plans to make sure he’s not one of those people. Sanofi, France’s biggest drugmaker, last month announced plans to cut 900 jobs in France over the next three years. If he loses his job, Guillaume says, he’ll go on unemployment benefits and look for another job, since retirement isn’t an option.
“The market for researchers isn’t great in France now, but I have no choice.” Guillaume said.
The Robber Barons are selling through media that because Americans are living so long----they don't need to retire at 65-----or 67-----and now the move is to 70 years old. They don't tell you that because Clinton neo-liberals and Republicans privatized health care eliminating our public health, Federal Medicare, and sent health care costs soaring-----US lifespan is already dropping and will fall fast through next decade. If Americans cannot access the routine heart/cancer/diabetes/surgical procedures inpatient hospital care which was what Affordable Care Act was about----and only preventative health care----then they will be dying in early to late 60s when most of these disease vectors hit hardest. Ergo, they will not live to 70 to collect SS Trust----and that will solve the fact that the SS Trust was looted. The costs of retirement today is health care-----housing that was once owned now has Americans renting----and the ability for American seniors to have disposable income to enjoy retirement with travel and hobby activities is being taken away---SO WHY RETIRE?
Being forced to work until you no longer can is the change in mindset that was the middle-class. BYE BYE middle-class time to work until you are no longer human capital .
With seniors forced to take part-time entry-level jobs, the high school and young adults that once depended on those jobs to begin their work careers are now largely unemployed. All of this was planned and all of this is unnecessary. Global market economics gave corporations to much power over our economies and getting global corporations out of our US economies is the solution. This begins at the local level by growing our US cities' local economies keeping corporations at bay. This will get everyone to work------create stability for long-term employment----and even create enough jobs for those immigrants already in the US. We must stop this next planned stage of flooding the US economy with more immigrants after this coming economic crash----
Why Does it Cost so Much to Retire?
Catherine Pernot Frontline
Catherine Rentz Pernot was a member of the production team for FRONTLINE'S
"Can You Afford to Retire?"
while finishing her graduate studies at the University of Missouri's journalism program.
More than half a million dollars. That's the number -- the price tag for retiring at age 65 -- that startled the state workers attending a retirement seminar in Lincoln, Neb.
The state of Nebraska ended its 401(k)-style defined contribution plan for new hires in the early 2000s, but state workers already participating in 401(k)s were allowed to continue and they were the ones attending the seminar that FRONTLINE filmed.
"You're all staring at this paper and thinking, 'Holy cow, those are big numbers,'" said John Morey, the retirement investment expert running the seminar. Morey and other experts regularly and deliberately thrust workers into retirement's hard reality by showing them the shocking figures.
As companies abandon lifetime pensions in favor of 401(k) plans, more workers are coming to grips with the staggering amounts they will need to save on their own. And they're asking, "Why does retirement cost so much?"
The answer, in short, is that Americans are living longer -- so much longer that many of them will outlive their retirement savings.
Living Longer, and Paying for It
The driving force behind the growing cost of retirement is the fact that the baby boomers will spend more time in retirement than any previous generation. According to the Center for Disease Control, a 65 year old can now expect to live another 18 years, on average. American seniors are living 50 percent longer than they were in the 1930s, when Social Security set 65 as the benchmark retirement age.
For some retirees, realizing how long they will live after retirement is a shock in itself. "When my husband used to talk about retirement, I would get really upset. I finally realized that I was thinking of retirement as the last step before death," said Peggy Briggs, a 67-year-old Nebraska state retiree. "Living a long time can be the scary step if you don't have enough resources to stretch over that period of time."
Another complicating factor for women like Peggy Briggs is that their life expectancies average three years longer than men's, but according to a 2004 survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, the median salary for women is 24 percent less than that for men.
Health Care CostsBy living longer, Americans confront potentially crippling health care costs.
According to a March 2006 study by Fidelity Investments, a retired couple without employer-sponsored health insurance can expect to pay $200,000 for out-of-pocket health care costs like premiums and co-pays. Moreover, this number does not include significant costs like long-term care, which isn't fully covered by Medicare.
The key phrase when talking about retiree health care is "employer-sponsored." As has happened with lifetime pensions, the number of companies offering retiree health care benefits is declining. In 1988, 66 percent of companies with 200 or more employees offered employer-sponsored health insurance to retirees. By 2005, that figure had dropped to 33 percent according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey of more than 2,000 employers.
Health care costs are rising, and so is the cost of everything else. "It isn't voodoo economics," Morey told the Nebraska workers. "It just costs more and more to live every single year."
Assuming the current inflation rate of 4 percent, the cost of living will double in 19 years, meaning that an American retiring today will see the purchasing power of their retirement savings drop by half during their expected lifespan. And today's inflation rate is historically low; a higher rate of inflation would make matters worse.
While Social Security and many public sector lifetime pensions adjust for inflation, most private retirement plans do not. 401(k) plans pay out a lump sum at retirement, or retirees can purchase an annuity with their savings to last them their lifetimes. In either case, 401(k) are not adjusted for inflation; it is up to retirees to make their nest eggs last.
Frayed Safety Nets
Retirees will be grappling with these concerns -- longevity, health care, inflation -- at the same time that Social Security and Medicare are under threat. The projected insolvency dates for these government benefit programs are 2040 for Social Security and 2018 for Medicare, according to the 2006 Trustees Report for the two programs.
"There is no question Social Security and Medicare will be here in future years," said U.S. comptroller general David Walker. "But there is also no question that they are going to have to be reformed and that the reforms are likely going to mean that people will get less, not more, than the current program."
Changes are already underway. The retirement age at which Americans will qualify for full Social Security benefits is increasing from 65 to 67; Medicare premiums and co-pays are rising as well.
Summing It Up
According to the 401(k) plan records analyzed by the Employee Benefits Research Institute (EBRI), Americans approaching retirement have, on average, three times their annual salaries in their accounts. Without any other form of savings, these retirees will burn through their 401(k)s in just seven or eight years, leaving them facing 10 or 11 years, based on life expectancy, with nothing but Social Security.
In order to retire comfortably, experts generally conclude that retirees need 10 times their final annual salaries. According to retirement expert Morey, that figure accounts for an inflation rate of 4 percent, which has been the average since 1900. But what it does not include is the rising cost of health care nd the threat of reduction in Medicare and Social Security support.
"To be safe, I would make it 15 times [final salary]," said Morey. "That's where we get those big numbers with all those zeros." That means a worker making $50,000 a year before retirement would need to save $750,000, three-quarters of a million dollars, in order to retire.
For many Americans approaching retirement, it is a daunting figure. "You think that you're prepared," said Peggy Gillispie, a 55-year-old Nebraska worker who attended Morey's seminar. "But the closer it comes, it is just a little scary."
The Federal labor stats the large Participation in Workforce stats that have only 61% of Americans in the workforce is explained by retiring baby boomers and students not wanting to work but to attend school.
NO, THAT IS NOT WHY WORKPLACE PARTICIPATION IS AT A RECORD HIGH.
The 2008 economic crash targeted workers with seniority and when they are forced into early retirement and cannot find a job that pays anything other than poverty wage they start using up all their savings----they sell their homes and landlords are selling their real estate investments trying to maintain a developed world lifestyle. All of this takes from the next generation who would have inherited houses and financial assets. Americans KNOW HOW TO RETIRE FROM WORK AND ENJOY THE END OF LIFE----WE ARE SIMPLY BEING LEFT WITH NO DISPOSABLE INCOME TO DO THIS.
There are people who want to work until they die----good for them they have right but will they be able to stay in jobs they would want? NO.
Obama and Clinton neo-liberals spent these several years creating the conditions that seniors are facing now-----they allowed the subprime mortgage fraud to go without justice----they allowed the pension and 401K fraud to go without justice-----they set the stage for the bond market fraud and economic crash just to create more unemployment----and they used the Affordable Care Act to privatize health care, ending Medicare making health care too costly to afford.
ALL OF THIS IS REPUBLICAN FAR-RIGHT POLICY----THEY HAVE TRIED FOR DECADES TO CREATE THIS DYNAMIC OF CITIZENS WORKING FROM CHILD LABOR UNTIL THEY DROP----
This generation of seniors are largely opting out of these low wage jobs spending all their wealth----the next generation will have no accumulated wealth and will work until they drop if Clinton/Obama Wall Street global corporate neo-liberals have their way. GET RID OF THESE GLOBAL POLS IN CONGRESS----STATEHOUSES, AND CITY HALL.
I Can`t Stop Working: Seniors Are Unable or Unwilling to Retire
By Jay Forte
"I can`t stop working." So many retirees have said this to me lately. But there are twi reasons why they say it.
Some can`t stop working because they can`t afford to stop working; they didn`t save enough, lost savings in the recession, have kids living with them longer or have aging parents to care for. They don`t have the money to stop working.
Then there are some who can`t stop working because they came from the most driven, focused and work-minded generation in history. They have no lives out of their work and are afraid to stop working because they lack purpose, and without purpose we all quickly fail. They have seen it in their friends who finished work and many of them finished life at the same time.
So many retirees find themselves unsure of how to navigate this next chapter in life. Though retirement sounded appealing with a more leisurely pace, no financial worries and, little if any of this is happening. There is a new period in our seniors` lives - I call it the retirement career. The hallmark of this time period is the need to continue to earn and/or the need to part of something important, valuable and relevant. Both have ushered in a new look at what retirement has in store for all of us.
Let`s start with the Boomers who don`t want to stop working; my grandfather was like this. In his mind, age had nothing to do with the ability to choose to show up and be efficient, effective and extraordinary at work. He was forced to retire at 65 and resented leaving the workforce. An avid learner and a stay-busy kind of guy, he drove my grandmother crazy until he redefined his purpose and rebuilt his definition of retirement.
Many of today`s retirees want to stay busy because, coming from the industrial age, they lived lives that were active, productive and focused. To end work without replacing it with something meaningful doesn`t address their need to feel relevant, vibrant and valuable - all critical in our sense of self and in our ability to stay healthy. As Dr Mehmet Oz says, "If your heart doesn`t have a good reason to keep beating, it generally won`t." Without a reason to wake up each day, we sometimes choose not to bother.
To age well requires that we more tightly align around purpose. Without learning how to reconnect to meaning and purpose, many of today`s retirees find themselves staying busy but in roles that fit them - they either have little impact, little joy or little value in the role. This makes life hard and uncomfortable. Coming from an industrial age that found little value in self-awareness and self-actualization, they now find that to stay busy in a meaningful way requires getting introduced to who they are - their talents, strengths and passions - so they can review today`s world for those work, volunteer and life opportunities that fit them. This allows them to connect to their potential and to show up significantly each day. Again, if the heart doesn`t have a reason to keep beating, it generally won`t. Purpose and value create reason.
The other aspect of today`s retirees relates to those who have to continue working; their retirement funds are insufficient to support whatever lifestyle they are living. Whether the high cost of medical coverage, food, energy or living, we see the graying of today`s workforce. To be successful in the workforce in our later years requires the same things that are needed for those retirees who don`t need to work but want to stay busy in a meaningful way - to know their unique abilities and align them to the roles that need what they do best.
In today`s workplace, successful organizations hire for fit. They understand the activities each job performs, assess the behaviors required to successfully complete those activities to build a performance profile for each role. This allows an organization to define the core abilities, skills and experience that truly disregards a candidate`s age in the hiring process.
Though age discrimination is illegal, many organizations still prefer to hire younger employees. However, the best performance has more to do with talents and abilities than age, skill or experience. I regularly consult with many companies on attracting, hiring and retaining talented workforces. My coaching is always to hire based on fit without regard to age or any other protected status. Abilities have nothing to do with age, gender or other visible attribute; abilities are based on thinking and performance preferences; these refer to employees` insides, not their outsides. Discounting older employees because of their age is not only illegal, it shortchanges a workplace of powerful and capable talent.
With my older coaching clients, I have to regularly shift their perspective away from considering only those roles in which they had previously worked. By defining their talents, older workers can see their core abilities and can expand the job opportunities that need what they do best. This connects them to roles that support their sense of value, importance and purpose. This increases opportunities in the workplace for those who either want to keep working, or need to keep working.
So how do we help our aging generations who find themselves choosing to stay busy through work or needing work to make ends meet? Two different solutions but both of them revolve around becoming more self-aware, something that was not in vogue through their many years in the workplace and can be summarized this way: Know yourself - what you are good at, passionate about and what matters to you; know your world - what are the expanding jobs, needs and opportunities; connect your best to a need, challenge or opportunity in today`s world. This is how it is done. Be self-aware. Be world-aware. Be an opportunity-hunter to find those opportunities that connect with your best abilities for the right paying job, or the right purpose job.
We all need to feel valuable, relevant and important; this starts with connecting to purpose. This is our work to do to be able to show up ready for, happy with and part of life - at any age.
At the same time global pols are pushing youth and seniors to keep looking for jobs they are of course writing immigration laws that allow immigrant labor into every US work sector and this is the hiring that most stats show for these several years. Again, it is not the fault of immigrants this is happening-----they are only being told they are coming to America for good jobs. They don't know they will be connected to the same International Economic Zone FOXCONN global corporate campuses and factories in their developing nations working enslaved in the US as they are in Asia and Latin America. We can create local economies that will employ both our US citizens and immigrants already here-----we will not be able to handle the flood of immigrants global pols plan for next decade---and the immigrants already here will fall into deeper poverty and workplace abuse as well. So, these policies are not good for US citizens OR IMMIGRANTS ALREADY IN THE US.
THE PROBLEM IS THE LAWS GLOBAL CORPORATE NEO-LIBERALS AND REPUBLICANS ARE WRITING ---THE SOLUTION IS TO STOP ALLOWING DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES BE FILLED WITH THESE CRONY WALL STREET PLAYERS.
I was listening to global corporate Chamber of Commerce National Public Radio ----NPR and APR are now completely controlled by Brookings Institution neo-liberal public policy news----where they were pretending to be perplexed by soaring rental rates across America. I have spoken to that mess but for now want to share what they pretended was part of this problem.......
THE US DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH HIGH-SKILLED CONSTRUCTION TRADES WORKERS AND NEEDS TO BRING MORE IMMIGRANTS TO DO THESE JOBS.
Citizens in Baltimore know that has already happened-----most trade work done in Baltimore is now filled with immigrant labor. It is older tradespeople being pushed out and younger citizens wanting to start careers in trades hit the most. Again, this is why unemployment is highest for young adults and near retirement----these high-skilled jobs were of course the middle-class jobs and we all know immigrant labor---even high-skilled are fleeced of wages and workplace protections and this is how global pols are killing the American middle-class.
HEAR OBAMA AND CLINTON NEO-LIBERALS SHOUTING THEY ARE PROTECTING THE AMERICAN MIDDLE-CLASS AND JOBS AS THEY PUSH THESE GLOBAL POLICIES HARDER THAN REPUBLICANS.
It is American skilled labor who make up much of the long-term unemployed not counted on Federal unemployment because they no longer receive unemployment checks. College grads are known to largely fail in finding jobs in their fields----the unemployment rates don't tell us these college grads are only working because they are part of this part-time/temporary/VISTA hiring cycle----they call that employment.
Commentary | Jobs and Unemployment
Is There Really a Shortage of Skilled Workers?
By Heidi Shierholz | January 23, 2014
This commentary originally appeared in Restoring Shared Prosperity: A Policy Agenda from Leading Keynesian Economists, edited by Thomas I. Palley and Gustav A. Horn.
Skill shortage versus aggregate demand shortage as the cause of high unemployment
As of mid-summer 2013, more than four years since the start of the recovery from the Great Recession, the unemployment rate was 7.4 percent. This is far higher than the highest unemployment rate of the early 2000s downturn, 6.3 percent. Nevertheless, 7.4 percent is a substantial improvement from the high of 10.0 percent in October 2009. Is this reason to celebrate? Unfortunately, no. It turns out that most of the improvement has happened for all the wrong reasons, with the vast majority of the decline in the unemployment rate being due to workers dropping out of, or never entering, the labor force due to weak job opportunities (N.B. jobless workers are not counted as being unemployed and in the labor force unless they are actively seeking work).
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if we were at full employment, the labor force would now number about 159.2 million, but the actual labor force is just 155.8 million. That means there are 3.4 million “missing workers” – jobless workers who would be in the labor force if job opportunities were stronger, but in the current environment are not actively seeking work and are therefore not counted. If those missing workers were in the labor force looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 9.4 percent instead of 7.4 percent. In other words, more than five-and-a-half years since the start of the Great Recession, the labor market remains extremely weak by historical standards.
One potential explanation for the extremely weak US jobs recovery is “skills mismatch,” whereby workers do not have the skills for the jobs that are available. There is a sizeable literature on whether a skills mismatch is a driver of today’s weak jobs recovery, and the strong consensus is that the weak labor market recovery is not due to skills mismatch (or any other structural factors). Instead, it is due to weakness in aggregate demand. For example, a 2012 paper by Edward Lazear (chief economist for George W. Bush) and James Spletzer states:
“An analysis of labor market data suggests that there are no structural changes that can explain movements in unemployment rates over recent years. Neither industrial nor demographic shifts nor a mismatch of skills with job vacancies is behind the increased rates of unemployment. … The patterns observed are consistent with unemployment being caused by cyclic phenomena that are more pronounced during the current recession than in prior recessions.” (Lazear et al, 2012)
Despite the clear consensus among researchers that the unambiguous problem is a shortfall of aggregate demand, there is a strong public narrative that today’s jobs recovery is weak because workers don’t have the right skills. Why? One reason may be psychological – it’s easier to blame workers for lack of skills rather than face the fact that millions cannot find work no matter what they do because the jobs simply are not there. That in turn makes it easy for stories and anecdotes about employers who cannot find workers with the skills they need to circulate unscrutinized.
Another reason is political, since the cause of high unemployment is vitally important for policy. If high unemployment is due to workers not having the right skills, then the correct policy prescription is to focus on education and training, and macroeconomic policy to boost aggregate demand will not reduce unemployment. Policymakers and commentators who are against fiscal stimulus have a strong incentive to accept and propagate the myth that today’s high unemployment is because workers lack the right skills.
The key insight unpinning the evidence presented here is that if today’s high unemployment were a problem of mismatches or a skills shortage, we would expect to find some types of workers or sectors or occupations of meaningful size now facing tight labor markets relative to before the recession started. The “signature” of skills mismatch is shortages relative to 2007 in some consequentially-sized groups of workers.
Figure 1 shows the unemployment rate by education, both in 2007 and over the last year (the 12-month period from August 2012-July 2013). It shows that workers with higher levels of education currently face – as they always do — substantially lower unemployment rates than other workers. However, they too have seen large percentage increases in unemployment. Workers with a college degree or more still have unemployment rates that are more than one-and-a-half times as high as they were before the recession began. In other words, demand for workers at all levels of education is significantly weaker now than it was before the recession started. There is no evidence of workers at any level of education facing tight labor markets relative to 2007.
Figure 2 shows the unemployment rate by detailed occupation in 2007 and 2012. As is always the case, some occupations in 2012 have higher unemployment rates than others. However, the unemployment rate in 2012 in all occupations is higher than it was before the recession. In every occupational category demand for workers is lower than it was five years ago. The signature of a skills mismatch – workers in some occupations experiencing tight labor markets relative to 2007 – is plainly missing.
Another valuable source for diagnosing the cause of the current sustained high unemployment is the data on job openings. Figure 3 shows the number of unemployed workers and the number of job openings by industry. Again, if high elevated unemployment were due to skills shortages or mismatches, we would expect to find some sectors where there are more unemployed workers than job openings, and some sectors where there are more job openings than unemployed workers. However, unemployed workers dramatically outnumber job openings in all sectors. There are between 1.4 and 10.5 times as many unemployed workers as job openings in every industry. Even in the industry (Finance and Insurance) with the most favorable ratio of unemployed workers to job openings, there are still 40 percent more unemployed workers than job openings. In no industry does the number of job openings even come close to the number of people looking for work.
Furthermore, a job opening when the labor market is weak often does not mean the same thing as a job opening when the labor market is strong. There is a wide range of “recruitment intensity” with which a company can deal with a job opening. For example, if a company is trying hard to fill an opening, it may increase the compensation package and/or scale back the required qualifications. Conversely, if it is not trying very hard, it may hike up the required qualifications and/or offer a meager compensation package. Perhaps unsurprisingly, research shows that recruitment intensity is cyclical: it tends to be stronger when the labor market is strong, and weaker when the labor market is weak (Davis, et al, 2012). This means that when a job opening goes unfilled when the labor market is weak, as it is today, companies may very well be holding out for an overly qualified candidate at a very cheap price.
Another way to approach the question of whether or not the labor market is suffering from skills mismatch is to note that if employers really did have enough demand for their goods and services to need to hire new people but couldn’t find suitable workers, they would be ramping up the hours of the workers they have. Figure 4 shows average weekly hours in 2012 as a percentage of average weekly hours in 2007 by occupation. Only in legal occupations are hours meaningfully longer than they were before the recession began, though the average workweek in legal occupations increased by less than one percent in those five years. Given that in almost all occupations the average weekly hours of existing workers are lower now than they were before the recession started, it is difficult to see how employers are seeing demand go unmet because they can’t find people who can do the work.
Another place to look for evidence of a skills shortage is in wage trends. If skills are in short supply, the simple logic of supply and demand implies wages should be increasing substantially in occupations where there is a shortage of skilled labor. In other words, employers who face shortages of suitable, interested workers should be responding by bidding up wages to attract the workers they need. Figure 5 shows average hourly wages in 2012 as a percentage of average hourly wages in 2007 by occupation, along with productivity growth over this same period as a benchmark for the rate at which average wages should grow. In no occupation is there any hint of wages being bid up in a way that would indicate tight labor markets or labor shortages. In fact, in no occupation have average wages even kept pace with overall productivity growth over this period. This pattern of productivity growth outstripping wage growth across the board is a signature of weak demand for workers caused by shortage of demand for goods and services, not skills mismatch.
In sum, no matter how you cut the data, there is no evidence of skills shortages as a major cause of today’s elevated unemployment. The evidence on wages, hours, job openings, and unemployment across demographic groups, industries, and occupations, all confirm broad-based weakened demand for workers.
What about other structural shifts aside from skills mismatches? One to consider is “housing lock” whereby problems in the housing market may mean individuals are locked into communities in which jobs are scarce. However, like the skills mismatch myth, housing lock has been rigorously investigated and rejected as a key driver of today’s persistent high unemployment (Farber, 2012; Lazear, et al, 2012; Rothstein, 2012).
Another argument is that today’s high unemployment is due to the unemployment insurance (UI) extensions in the Great Recession and its aftermath. However, this too has been rigorously investigated and UI extensions have been found to have had at most a very modest impact on the amount of time people remain unemployed. Moreover, the small increase in unemployment duration due to UI extensions is primarily due to the fact that unemployed workers who receive UI are less likely to give up looking for work, because an active job search is a requirement for receiving benefits. This is a positive feature since keeping workers attached to the labor market may increase the likelihood they will eventually find work rather than entering the pool of hidden unemployment made up of discouraged workers. Of course, the effects of extended UI benefits are likely to disappear when those benefits expire, as they have already begun to do (Daly, et al, 2012; Farber, et al, 2013; Rothstein, 2012).
Conclusion: it’s aggregate demand, stupid!
There are simply no structural changes capable of explaining the pattern of sustained high unemployment over the last five years. What we have, instead, is an aggregate demand problem. The reason we are not seeing robust job growth is because businesses have not seen demand for their goods and services pick up in a way that would require them to significantly ramp up hiring. The right policies for the present moment are, therefore, straightforward. More education and training to help workers make job transitions could help some individuals, but it’s not going to generate demand, so it will not solve the unemployment crisis. Instead, Washington policymakers must to focus on policies that will stimulate demand. In the current moment this can only be reliably accomplished through expansionary fiscal policy involving such measures as large-scale ongoing public investments and the reestablishment of state and local public services that were cut in the Great Recession and its aftermath.
Baltimore City has been ground zero for all this these few decades because a very, very, very neo-conservative Johns Hopkins and Wall Street Baltimore Development Corporation installed all these International Economic Zone policies early on. Baltimore knows long-term unemployment, knows finding only poverty jobs, and knows the influx of immigrant labor. I speak to all kinds of labor justice groups and they DO NOT BLAME THE IMMIGRANTS----THEY KNOW IT IS POLITICIANS AND THEIR BAD POLICIES.
Maryland has been designated one great big International Economic Zone by it Maryland Assembly----ALL MARYLAND POLS ARE GLOBAL CLINTON/OBAMA NEO-LIBERALS OR BUSH/JOHNS HOPKINS NEO-CONS. As such for these few decades both rural Maryland and urban Maryland has seen a wide population shift with Maryland citizens leaving Maryland and immigrant populations growing. That is what International Economic Zone polices are about----this is the installation of these policies. As Maryland and Baltimore juke the unemployment stats saying unemployment was down to 6% and now 5%----again, that is only people receiving unemployment benefits and most Maryland unemployed are now LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED. As immigrant hiring increases----they are counted in the hiring stats but are not included in the unemployment stats. THIS IS WHY UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES ARE SO LOW. We wouldn't even know if unemployment is high in Latino immigrant groups as immigrants from around the world take what were Latino jobs.
DON'T BELIEVE FOR A MINUTE THAT THESE JOB STATS HAVE CHANGED SINCE 2010---THEY HAVE GOTTEN WORSE AS LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT GREW SINCE 2010.
New jobless claims filed in December soar in Maryland
Number of applications filed last month most since 1974
Feb 1, 2010, 12:00am EST Updated Jan 29, 2010, 5:00am EST
Scott Dance StaffThe number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit its highest monthly total since 1974 in December, despite perceptions that layoffs have slowed.
Julie Ellen Squire, of the state’s labor department, testified before lawmakers Jan. 26… more
Maryland received 48,693 new claims for unemployment last month. That was up 49 percent from the previous month and 13 percent from the same period a year earlier.
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Unemployment is high for all youth----but long-term unemployment for black citizens in cities is now growing higher for black youth and that is tied to our US cities being made International Economic Zones with the plan of moving US city citizens out----and foreign rich and immigrants into these IEZ.
Politicians in Baltimore have absolutely no plan for hiring Baltimore's poor citizens-----they only intend to feed them into these global corporate FOXCONN factories along with immigrant workers. This is why Baltimore is filled with phoney employment gimmicks keeping people feeling like they are moving towards employment when they are not.
THESE ARE SHOW ME THE MONEY GLOBAL CORPORATE WALL STREET PLAYERS FOLKS---NOT POLITICIANS----GET RID OF THESE CRONY POLS AND FILL OUR DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARIES WITH SOCIAL DEMOCRATS.
Unemployment Among Black Youth 393% Higher Than National Rate
By Ali Meyer | November 8, 2013 | 10:17 AM EST
Job seekers line up to talk to recruiters during a job fair held in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis, file)
(CNSNews.com) – The black youth unemployment rate for ages 16-19 is 393% higher than the national unemployment rate, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
As of October 2013, the unemployment rate for this demographic was 36.0 percent, an increase over last month’s rate of 35.1 percent. The national unemployment rate currently stands at 7.3 percent.
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who do not have a job. To be in the labor force a person must either have a job or actively sought one in the last four weeks.
Fewer black youth held jobs in October with the number of employed decreasing from 487,000 in September to 444,000. This means 43,000 fewer black youth held jobs in October.
Additionally, the participation rate for black youth has decreased from 29.4 percent in September to 27.3 percent in October, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points.
If a candidate running as a Democrat has not been shouting LOUDLY AND STRONGLY against corporate/global corporate control of US cities like Baltimore and needing to rebuild a local economy keeping global corporations at bay-----to break this monopoly-hold global corporations have on the US and Baltimore economy-----THEY ARE WALL STREET GLOBAL CORPORATE NEO-LIBERALS OR BUSH/HOPKINS NEO-CONS----GET RID OF THEM.
'U.S. FIRMS RATTLED BY CHINESE ANTI-MONOPOLY COPS: American companies are increasingly troubled about China’s vigorous enforcement of its six-year-old anti-monopoly law, which appears to be directed more often at foreign companies in recent months, the U.S.-China Business Council said in a report published Wednesday morning'.
When I listen to long-time pols like Pugh, Dixon, Stokes----even short-termer Mosby----and then have to listen to vulture capitalist Warnock all who created this very bad policy and are committed to International Economic Zone and Trans Pacific Trade Pact shouting the same JOBS JOBS JOBS -----BUILDING LOCAL ECONOMIES----only saying what citizens want with NO INTENTION OF DOING ANY OF IT-----WE THE PEOPLE are waking up-----Baltimore voters will not be fooled again with these crony politics-----the American people both Democrat and Republican are leaning to Bernie Sanders because he is anti-TPP and has shouted out against monopoly-----social Democrats do not allow all these kinds of policies and we do not bring immigrants into the US just to enslave them in FOXCONN factories.
When you are focused on building global markets and bringing global corporations into these FTZs-----you are not focused on building local economies and you are not worried about anti-trust monopoly -----you are installing NEW WORLD ORDER policy.
GROWING A LOCAL ECONOMY WITH FOREIGN TRADE????? REALLY??????
Maryland - MD Foreign Trade Zones
- state and local economic development organizations and professional service providers
FTZ No. 63 Prince George's County - Prince George's County Government - Washington DCUpper Marlboro MD 20772 www.pgcedc.com 301-952-3706
FTZ No. 74 Baltimore - Baltimore Development Corporation - also Enterprise ZoneBaltimore MD 21201 www.baltimoredevelopment.com FTZ 74 information Enterprise Zone info
FTZ No. 73 BWI Airport - Maryland Department of Transportation, Maryland Aviation Administration - Baltimore - 73A Rotorex 73B Northrop GrummanBWI Airport MD 21240 www.bwiairport.com 410-859-7002
FTZ No. 255 Washington County - Board of County Commissioners of Washington County - Baltimore
Europe enforces anti-trust monopoly laws and above you see even China is doing so----those foreign corporations being pushed from China will flock to US International Economic Zones if we do not stop this policy.
U.S. firms rattled by Chinese anti-monopoly cops -- TPP ministers met ahead of Hanoi -- German emerges in race for top EU trade post
By Adam Behsudi
09/03/14 10:04 AM EDT
With help from Doug Palmer
U.S. FIRMS RATTLED BY CHINESE ANTI-MONOPOLY COPS: American companies are increasingly troubled about China’s vigorous enforcement of its six-year-old anti-monopoly law, which appears to be directed more often at foreign companies in recent months, the U.S.-China Business Council said in a report published Wednesday morning.
The group says 86 percent of the U.S. firms it surveyed expressed some level of concern about competition enforcement activities in China. The report comes one day after the American Chamber of Commerce in China released its own report saying that U.S. companies felt increasingly targeted there.
The increasingly vocal American business complaints raise the profile of the issue ahead of President Barack Obama’s trip to Beijing in November for the annual meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which China is hosting this year. It also appears to reflect less confidence that the still relatively young administration of Chinese President Xi Jinping will usher in a new era of Chinese economic openness.
TPP MINISTERS MET AHEAD OF HANOI:
U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman spent time on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations trade ministers meeting last week in Myanmar, talking to counterparts from a number of Trans-Pacific Partnership countries: New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and Vietnam.
Those meetings yielded some progress in some areas but the “discussions were with eyes on the chief negotiator meeting that started yesterday,” a USTR spokesman told Morning Trade late yesterday.
Another TPP ministerial-level meeting could be in the works but USTR won’t commit to whether such a meeting will even take place. Even so, “it’s getting to the point where there is less and less work for chief negotiators to do,” the spokesman said.
STATE: FTAAP ROADMAP TO BE ROLLED OUT AT APEC — President Barack Obama is expected to help launch a “roadmap” to ultimately reach a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) when he travels to Beijing in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leader’s summit, a senior State Department official told reporters last week
“We will have, essentially, the roadmap that would include a lot of events that we’ll be doing — activities we’ll be doing that would include information-sharing, it would include capacity-building, it would include, finally, an analytical study of how we’re going to move towards a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific,” Robert Wang, the U.S. senior official for APEC, said after returning from an APEC senior officials’ meeting in Beijing last month.
Wang, however, deferred to USTR on what would happen on the sidelines of this year’s big APEC meeting when it came to TPP. “All I can say is I think we’re making progress, but I don’t know what will happen by the end of the year,” he said.
Rice travels to Beijing: On a related note, National Security Adviser Susan Rice will travel to Beijing, Sept. 7-9, to consult with State Councilor Yang Jiechi and other senior officials “on a range of bilateral, regional and global issues,” according to a White House press release. Read more about the APEC briefing here: